Market Breakdowns

Analyze how markets break down. Understanding structure failure.


Breakdown 1: Failed Uptrend

Structure

Trend: Uptrend
Pattern: Lower high, lower low
Key: Structure breaks

How It Happens

Step 1: Price makes lower high
Step 2: Price breaks below last low
Step 3: Trend changes

Analysis

Why structure broke:
- Momentum slowing
- Volume decreasing
- No new highs

Lesson

Watch for lower highs.
Trend persists while HH/HL.
Break = change.

Breakdown 2: Failed Range

Structure

Pattern: Range
Break: False breakout

How It Happens

Step 1: Price breaks above range
Step 2: No follow-through
Step 3: Returns to range
Step 4: Breaks below

Analysis

Why false break:
- No volume on break
- Stops hunted
- No institutional buy

Lesson

Check volume on breakouts.
Wait for follow-through.
Confirmer > anticipating.

Breakdown 3: Failed Support

Structure

Pattern: Strong support
Failure: Support breaks

How It Happens

Step 1: Price bounces off support
Step 2: Next test, support breaks
Step 3: No bounce
Step 4: New low

Analysis

Why support broke:
- Too many tests
- Liquidity exhausted
- Downtrend strength

Lesson

Supports weaken with tests.
Watch for multiple touches.
Strong break = weak support.

Breakdown 4: Momentum Exhaustion

Structure

Pattern: Strong momentum
Stop: Suddenly stops

How It Happens

Step 1: Strong momentum up
Step 2: Momentum slows
Step 3: Large candle reversal
Step 4: Trend changes

Analysis

Why exhaustion:
- No more buyers
- Bears stepped in
- Reversal = exhaustion

Lesson

Watch for slowing momentum.
Large reversal = exhaustion.
Lock profits before.

Key Takeaways

  1. Lower highs — Watch for break
  2. Volume confirms — Check on breakouts
  3. Multiple tests — Weaken levels
  4. Slowing momentum — Exhaustion

Related

winning-trades.md >>>

losing-trades.md >>>

trend-reversals.md >>>

Structure fails. Identify it.